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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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